Bitcoin Rally Reaches Its Risky Level For October 2021

Bitcoin (BTC) is on an uptrend from trading to 29,283.97 on July 20. Based on the September closing price of 43,438.50, my own analysis shows that the risk level for October is 57,814, today’s trade exceeds that level. The gain was due to a break above the pivot on October 1 at 45,713.

Some Wall Street analysts say Bitcoin is not tradable. With daily and weekly charts and levels from my analysis, Bitcoin is easy to trade.

Bitcoin has been trading above the Golden Cross since September 16, when the 50-day MA was above the 200-day MA. The price for October is 57,814 which is a dangerous level for the month. It also hit a maximum of 58,523.36. The 50-day SMA is 48,211.44 and the 200-day SMA is 44,933.64.

The highest horizon is 57,814 monthly pivots. The second horizon at 45,713 is a quarterly pivot. The third horizon includes 37,815 semi-annual pivots. The lower horizon is an annual rate of 18,892.

Bitcoin weekly chart
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is positive but overbought with code above the modified 5-week moving average at 49,579.86. This far exceeds the 200-week simple moving average, or a reversal to the 16,304.60 average. The last 200-week SMA tested at 5,568.64 for the week of March 22, 2020.

The weekly 12x3x3 slow probability rate has risen to 81.83 and is overbought above 80.00. A buy signal appears in the week of August 8th.

Trading Strategy: The downside bought bitcoin at 45,713 quarterly pivots and reduced the stock to 57,814 monthly pivots tested today. I do not recommend short positions.